edu.ucar.opensky::articles:10815 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-26T14:08:08.018730 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7gt5nqx Predicting typhoon Morakot's catastrophic rainfall with a convection-permitting mesoscale ensemble system 2010-12-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7gt5nqx https://doi.org/10.1175/2010WAF2222414.1 Zhang, F. author Weng, Y. author Kuo, Ying-Hwa author Whitaker, J. author Xie, B. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher This study examines the prediction and predictability of the recent catastrophic rainfall and flooding event over Taiwan induced by Typhoon Morakot (2009) with a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. A high-resolution convection-permitting mesoscale ensemble, initialized with analysis and flow-dependent perturbations obtained from a real-time global ensemble data assimilation system, is found to be able to predict this record-breaking rainfall event, producing probability forecasts potentially valuable to the emergency management decision makers and the general public. Since all the advanced modeling and data assimilation techniques used here are readily available for real-time operational implementation provided sufficient computing resources are made available, this study demonstrates the potential and need of using ensemble-based analysis and forecasting, along with enhanced computing, in predicting extreme weather events like Typhoon Morakot at operational centers. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2010 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work. None eng geoscientificInformation