edu.ucar.opensky::articles:42361 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-24T18:01:26.346931 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d75143kd https://doi.org/10.17190/AMF/1854369 https Related Dataset #1 AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-MMS Morgan Monroe State Forest https://doi.org/10.17190/AMF/1871137 https Related Dataset #2 AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-Ha1 Harvard Forest EMS Tower (HFR1) When is a trend meaningful? Insights to carbon cycle variability from an initial-condition large ensemble 2024-12-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d75143kd https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00878-w Bonan, Gordon B. author Deser, Clara author Wieder, William author Lombardozzi, Danica author Lehner, Flavio author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher <p><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(34, 34, 34);display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">Internal climate variability (ICV) creates a range of climate trajectories, which are superimposed upon the forced response. A single climate model realization may not represent forced change alone and may diverge from other realizations, as well as observations, due to ICV. We use an initial-condition large ensemble of simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) to show that ICV produces a range of outcomes in the terrestrial carbon cycle. Trends in gross primary production (GPP) from 1991 to 2020 differ among ensemble members due to the different climate trajectories resulting from ICV. We quantify how ICV imparts on GPP trends and apply our methodology to the observational record. Observed changes in GPP at two long-running eddy covariance flux towers are consistent with ICV, challenging the understanding of forced changes in the carbon cycle at these locations. A probabilistic framework that accounts for ICV is needed to interpret carbon cycle trends.</span></p> UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication <style type="text/css"></style><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:10pt;font-style:normal;" data-sheets-root="1">Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.</span> None eng geoscientificInformation