edu.ucar.opensky::articles:26825 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-24T19:00:14.321274 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7fx7fk4 Operational storm surge forecasting at the National Hurricane Center: The case for probabilistic guidance and the evaluation of improved storm size forecasts used to define the wind forcing 2023-12-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7fx7fk4 https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-22-0209.1 Penny, Andrew author Alaka, Laura author Taylor, A. A. author Booth, William author DeMaria, M. author Fritz, C. author Rhome, J. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher The primary source of guidance used by the Storm Surge Unit (SSU) at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for issuing storm surge watches and warnings is the Probabilistic Tropical Storm Surge model (P-Surge). P-Surge is an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model forecasts that is generated based on historical error distributions from NHC official forecasts. A probabilistic framework is used for operational storm surge forecasting to account for uncertainty related to the tropical cyclone track and wind forcing. Previous studies have shown that the size of a storm's wind field is an important factor that can affect storm surge. A simple radius of maximum wind (RMW) prediction scheme was developed to forecast RMW based on NHC forecast parameters. Verification results indicate this scheme is an improvement over the RMW forecasts used by previous versions of P-Surge. To test the impact of the updated RMW forecasts in P-Surge, retrospective cases were selected from 25 storms from 2008 to 2020 that had an adequate number of observations. Evaluation of P-Surge forecasts using these improved RMW forecasts shows that the probability of detection is higher for most probability of exceedance thresholds. In addition, the forecast reliability is improved, and there is an increase in the number of high probability forecasts for extreme events at longer lead times. The improved RMW forecasts were recently incorporated into the operational version of P-Surge (v2.9), and serve as an important step toward extending the lead time of skillful and reliable storm surge forecasts. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2023 American Meteorological Society (AMS). None eng geoscientificInformation