edu.ucar.opensky::articles:23318 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-25T15:13:11.003886 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7x92fhg https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5711 https Related Dataset #1 MIROC MIROC6 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP piControl https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1402 https Related Dataset #2 NOAA-GFDL GFDL-CM4 model output https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.7627 https Related Dataset #3 NCAR CESM2 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.621 https Related Dataset #4 MRI MRI-ESM2.0 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1901 https Related Dataset #5 MOHC HadGEM3-GC31-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 HighResMIP https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.7380 https Related Dataset #6 NASA-GISS GISS-E2.1G model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP piControl https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4169 https Related Dataset #7 CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-ESM2-1 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP for experiment piControl-spinup https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1534 https Related Dataset #8 IPSL IPSL-CM6A-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.3673 https Related Dataset #9 CCCma CanESM5 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP piControl https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6298 https Related Dataset #10 MOHC UKESM1.0-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP piControl https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.10024 https Related Dataset #11 NCAR CESM2-WACCM model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP Uncertainty in the response of sudden stratospheric warmings and stratosphere-troposphere coupling to quadrupled CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 models 2020-03-27T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7x92fhg https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032345 Ayarzagüena, B. author Charlton-Perez, A. author Butler, A. author HITCHCOCK, P. author Simpson, Isla R. author Polvani, L. author Butchart, N. author Gerber, E. author Gray, L. author Hassler, B. author Lin, P. author Lott, F. author Manzini, E. author Mizuta, R. author Orbe, C. author Osprey, S. author Saint-Martin, D. author Sigmond, M. author Taguchi, M. author Volodin, E. author Watanabe, S. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), vortex formation, and final breakdown dates are key highlight points of the stratospheric polar vortex. These phenomena are relevant for stratosphere-troposphere coupling, which explains the interest in understanding their future changes. However, up to now, there is not a clear consensus on which projected changes to the polar vortex are robust, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, possibly due to short data record or relatively moderate CO2 forcing. The new simulations performed under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6, together with the long daily data requirements of the DynVarMIP project in preindustrial and quadrupled CO2 (4xCO(2)) forcing simulations provide a new opportunity to revisit this topic by overcoming the limitations mentioned above. In this study, we analyze this new model output to document the change, if any, in the frequency of SSWs under 4xCO(2) forcing. Our analysis reveals a large disagreement across the models as to the sign of this change, even though most models show a statistically significant change. As for the near-surface response to SSWs, the models, however, are in good agreement as to this signal over the North Atlantic: There is no indication of a change under 4xCO(2) forcing. Over the Pacific, however, the change is more uncertain, with some indication that there will be a larger mean response. Finally, the models show robust changes to the seasonal cycle in the stratosphere. Specifically, we find a longer duration of the stratospheric polar vortex and thus a longer season of stratosphere-troposphere coupling. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2020 American Geophysical Union. None eng geoscientificInformation