Reappraisal of the Climate Impacts of Ozone-Depleting Substances

We assess the effective radiative forcing due to ozone-depleting substances using models participating in the Aerosols and Chemistry and Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Projects (AerChemMIP, RFMIP). A large intermodel spread in this globally averaged quantity necessitates an "emergent constraint" approach whereby we link the radiative forcing to ozone declines measured and simulated during 1979-2000, excluding two volcanically perturbed periods. During this period, ozone-depleting substances were increasing, and several merged satellite-based climatologies document the ensuing decline of total-column ozone. Using these analyses, we find an effective radiative forcing of -0.05 to 0.13 W m(-2). Our best estimate (0.04 W m(-2)) is on the edge of the "likely" range given by the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC of 0.03 to 0.33 W m(-2) but is in better agreement with two other literature results.

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Publication Date 2020-10-28T00:00:00
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Metadata Date 2025-07-11T19:14:10.113410
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Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation . (2020). Reappraisal of the Climate Impacts of Ozone-Depleting Substances. UCAR/NCAR - Library. https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7qf8x5k. Accessed 26 January 2026.

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