Speleothem records from the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) region display variability in the ratio of O-18 and O-18 (delta O-16) in calcium carbonate at orbital frequencies. The dominant mode of variability in many of these records reflects cycles of precession. There are several potential explanations for why SASM speleothem records show a strong precession signal, including changes in temperature, precipitation, and circulation. Here we use an Earth system model with water isotope tracers and water-tagging capability to deconstruct the precession signal found in SASM speleothem records. Our results show that cycles of precession-eccentricity produce changes in SASM intensity that correlate with local temperature, precipitation, and delta O-18. However, neither the amount effect nor temperature differences are responsible for the majority of the SASM delta O-18 variability. Instead, changes in the relative moisture contributions from different source regions drive much of the SASM delta O-18 signal, with more nearby moisture sources during Northern Hemisphere summer at aphelion and more distant moisture sources during Northern Hemisphere summer at perihelion. Further, we find that evaporation amplifies the delta O-18 signal of soil water relative to that of precipitation, providing a better match with the SASM speleothem records. This work helps explain a significant portion of the long-term variability found in SASM speleothem records.
