Pan-Pacific low-frequency modes of sea level and climate variability

Tide gauges provide a long observational record that can inform the nature of satellite-era basin-scale sea level trends. However, common signals must be extracted from geographically sparse records. Here, by applying low-frequency component analysis (LFCA) to tide gauge records and surface climate reconstructions, we isolate three coherent modes of Pacific Ocean variability that we ascribe to: a secular, greenhouse gas–driven climate change (LFC1); a nonlinear mode of variability with a reversal around 1980, potentially linked to aerosols (LFC2); and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (LFC3). Although sea level trend patterns reflect the superimposed contribution of all modes, satellite-era trends are dominated by an increasing phase of LFC2: They are thus potentially unrepresentative of both longer-term historical patterns and those expected in the future.