Pseudo-Global Warming Convection-Permitting Simulations using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS-A) for use in the Caribbean, Mexico, and Central America Regions

This dataset is the companion dataset to the multi-week convection permitting simulations during September 2017 in which Hurricane Maria occurred, except under a future climate scenario using the the pseudo-global warming (PGW) approach. We use the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble 2 (LENS2) to take the 100-member ensemble mean difference between the monthly mean future (2070-2100) and historical period (1999-2021), and add that delta to the ERA5 reanalysis data that forces MPAS at boundary and initial conditions. All other aspects of this PGW simulation are the same as the historical simulations, as we use MPAS-A version 8.0.1 with a 15-3km variable mesh centered at 20 degrees North and 80 degrees West. This regional domain extends from 20 degree South to 61 degree North and from 145 degree West to 15 degree West. The inner, 3km nest covers Central America and the Caribbean, while the 15 km portion of the domain extends well into South and North America. These simulations were developed to enable research as part of the NSF NCAR Mesoamerica Affinity Group (MAAG) in collaboration with Dr. Kelly Nunez Ocasio at Texas A&M. Alongside the historic simulations, these novel PGW MPAS simulations will allow for an analysis of how warmer and moister conditions could change hurricanes, low-level jets, ITCZ, extreme rainfall, and MCSs, among other features, in this region. The dataset includes output on the native MPAS grid, for flexibility in plotting directly in using UXarray or to use a remapping function. We also include namelist files for running the model.