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Challenges of Operational Weather Forecast Verification and Evaluation
Operational agencies face significant challenges related to the verification and evaluation of weather forecasts. These challenges were investigated in a series of online...- publication PDF
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Validation of OMPS Suomi NPP and OMPS NOAA-20 formaldehyde total columns...
We validate formaldehyde (HCHO) vertical column densities (VCDs) from Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Nadir Mapper (OMPS-NM) instruments onboard the Suomi National Polar-...- publication PDF
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On the value of time-lag-ensemble averaging to improve numerical model...
The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model with its hourly updating cycles provides multiple weather forecasts valid at any given time. A logical combination of these...- publication PDF
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Quantifying the role of internal climate variability in future climate trends
Internal variability in the climate system gives rise to large uncertainty in projections of future climate. The uncertainty in future climate due to internal climate...- publication PDF
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Characterization of the long-term radiosonde temperature biases in the upper...
Radiosonde observations (RAOBs) have provided the only long-term global in situ temperature measurements in the troposphere and lower stratosphere since 1958. In this study, we...- publication PDF
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Quantifying the risk of extreme events under climate change
We are all familiar with the proverbial "100-year flood," a concept instrumental in engineering design for water resources management. This concept, generally termed a "return...- publication PDF
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The intraseasonal and interannual variability of Arctic temperature and...
Temperature and humidity inversions are common in the Arctic's lower troposphere, and are a crucial component of the Arctic's climate system. In this study, we quantify the...- publication PDF
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Global changes in terrestrial vegetation and continental climate during the...
Most studies of the response of terrestrial vegetation to climate change during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) have focused on individual sites and sections. To get...- publication PDF
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A probabilistic climatology-based analogue intensity forecast scheme for...
In this article, we develop an objective probabilistic climatology-based intensity forecast (PCIF) scheme for tropical cyclones (TCs) over the northwestern Pacific region based...- publication PDF
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Balance of the background-error variances in the ensemble assimilation...
This paper quantifies the linear mass wind field balance and its temporal variability in the global data assimilation system Data Assimilation Research Testbed/Community...- publication PDF
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A real-time model-observation comparison of F2 peak electron densities...
The first-principles, time-dependent Thermosphere-Ionosphere Nested Grid (TING) Model has been run automatically in real time to support the Upper Atmospheric Research...- publication PDF
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The consequences of surface-exchange coefficient uncertainty on an otherwise...
In addition to initial conditions, uncertainty in model physics can also influence the practical predictability of tropical cyclones. In this study, the influence that various...- publication PDF
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Long-lived mesoscale systems in a low-convective inhibition environment....
Part II of this study of long-lived convective systems in a tropical environment focuses on forward-tilted, downshear-propagating systems that emerge spontaneously from...- publication PDF
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Higher precipitation in East Asia and western United States expected with...
Precipitation over East Asia and the western United States is projected to increase as a result of global warming, although substantial uncertainties persist regarding the...- publication PDF
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The role of vertical shear on aviation turbulence within cirrus bands of a...
At 0300 UTC 9 September 2010, commercial aircraft traveling between Tokyo and Hawaii encountered regions of moderate and severe intensity turbulence at about 12-km elevation in...- publication PDF
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Assessing noaa rip-current hazard likelihood predictions: Comparison with...
Rip currents, fast offshore-directed flows, are the leading cause of death and rescues on surf beaches worldwide. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)...- publication PDF
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Enhancing understanding of the hydrological cycle via pairing of...
The hydrologic cycle couples the Earth's energy and carbon budgets through evaporation, moisture transport, and precipitation. Despite a wealth of observations and models,...- publication PDF
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Impacts of vertically propagating tides on the mean state of the...
The National Center for Atmospheric Research Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM) is utilized to understand the role that upward...- publication PDF
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Stable computations with Gaussian radial basis functions
Radial basis function (RBF) approximation is an extremely powerful tool for representing smooth functions in nontrivial geometries since the method is mesh-free and can be...- publication PDF
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Can atomic oxygen production explain the ionospheric annual asymmetry?
The causes of the ionospheric annual asymmetry, which refers to a larger averaged electron density at geomagnetic conjugate latitudes in December than in June, remain an...- publication PDF
